Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Grandparent scam: London, Ont., senior beats fraudsters not once, but twice
It was a typical Tuesday for Mabel Beharrell, 84, until she got the call that would turn her world upside down. Her teenaged grandson was in trouble and needed her help.
Deaths of 4 people on Sask. farm confirmed as murder-suicide
The deaths of four people on a farm near the Saskatchewan village of Neudorf have been confirmed a murder-suicide.
CRA no longer requiring 'bare trust' reporting in 2023 tax return
The Canada Revenue Agency announced Thursday it will not require 'bare trust' reporting from Canadians that it introduced for the 2024 tax season, just four days before the April 2 deadline.
Full parole granted to man convicted in notorious 'McDonald's murders' in Cape Breton
The Parole Board of Canada has granted full parole to one of three men convicted in the brutal murders of three McDonald's restaurant workers in Cape Breton more than 30 years ago.
Incident on Calgary's Reconciliation Bridge comes to safe resolution
Nearly 20 hours after a man climbed and remained perched on top of the Reconciliation Bridge in downtown Calgary, the situation came to a peaceful resolution.
Sunshine list: These were the Ontario public sector's highest earners in 2023
Ontario released its annual sunshine list Thursday afternoon, noting that the largest year-over-year increases were in hospitals, municipalities, and post-secondary sectors.
George Washington family secrets revealed by DNA from unmarked 19th century graves
Genetic analysis has shed light on a long-standing mystery surrounding the fates of U.S. President George Washington's younger brother Samuel and his kin.
'We won't forget': How some Muslims view Poilievre's stance on Israel-Hamas war
A spokesman for a regional Muslim advocacy group says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's stance on the Israel-Hamas war could complicate his party's relationship with Muslim Canadians.
Why some Christians are angry about Trump's 'God Bless the USA' Bible
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is officially selling a copy of the Bible themed to Lee Greenwood’s famous song, 'God Bless the USA.' But the concept of a Bible covered in the American flag has raised concern among religious circles.