As a numbers cruncher, I’ve seen holiday weekends during elections propel candidates to victory and dash them into oblivion. As Ontarians gather with friends and family around their BBQs, catch-up up on life and work, perhaps watch the royal nuptials, their conversation will eventually turn to the race which will cast judgement on Kathleen Wynne, Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath. During past elections, periods after long weekends can be critical times to either firm up an existing trend line or create a new political trajectory.
With the June 7th election judgement looming, the reality is that the main arc of the campaign does not have much time to change. Watch the trend coming out of the long weekend to have a sense of what will likely happen on election day.
On day one of the Ontario provincial election campaign, PC leader Doug Ford was leading. Going into the long weekend, he remains ahead of his opponents. However, today’s trend is just today’s trend and it is no unwavering predictor of the outcome. Campaigns matter. There have been no lethal hits landed on anyone. It has been more skirmish than full blown assault. Ford entered the race as one agent of change and Horwath as a more genteel agent of change, while Wynne had a record to defend.
What’s confounding about this campaign period is the Liberal re-election strategy. The PC strategy was not a surprise: slam Wynne’s record, tap into voter fatigue and add a dash of populist style politics with a thick side of sloganeering. Likewise, the NDP strategy was to focus on a liked-leader – Horwath – and to frame the party as progressive change.
But what about the Ontario Liberals? They attacked Ford’s lack of specifics with bogeyman zest and questioned the credibility of the NDP platform numbers. To their detriment, one could argue that they have missed the point of explaining why they deserve another mandate and why they believe they are better than the other choices on the political menu.
If they remembered the strategy of the Liberal Party of Canada leading into the 1993 election, perhaps they would have had more effective strategy. Leading up to 1993, former prime minister Jean Chrétien was cast as yesterday’s man, too old, and too tired to lead Canada (proven wrong by his successive victories). Back then, the federal Liberals campaigned on the “we have a team, we have a plan” mantra to inoculate the party against the possible risks of a less popular leader.
Why put an unpopular premier front and center in a campaign? The Ontario Liberals could have effectively run on their team and plan. On the one hand, they could have put a spotlight on Ford as the solitary party leader thin on specifics, and on the other hand, Andrea Horwath as the liked leader with a plan but with less political bench strength than the Grits. This would have been the two for one strategy: de-emphasizing the leader and putting a spotlight on the inadequacies of the opponents.
Did this happen? Nope. This election is about what type of change Ontarians want – not if that change is risky. In that sense, the Ontario Liberal strategy has played into the hands of the opposition. To hold onto power, the Wynne Liberals need both the Ford PCs and the Horwath New Democrats to blow up spectacularly and at the same time. Possible, of course. Likely to occur? Probably not.
Nik Nanos is Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. The analysis and observations expressed here are those of Mr. Nanos alone and do not reflect the opinions or views of CTV, Bell Media or any of its news properties, employees or management.
