'It's not realistic': Former PM Chretien thinks Trump will back off trade war

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien says U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is likely to walk back his threat of punishing tariffs and the resulting trade war with Canada, because the Americans are too reliant on a number of Canadian exports, namely in the energy sector.

"He's apparently said this morning that he does not need our electricity. Fine," Chrétien said in an exclusive broadcast interview with CTV Question Period, airing Sunday. "If he wants us to cut off electricity, he would have to walk up the Trump Tower with candles to go to his office, because the state of New York relies a lot on electricity coming from Canada."

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"So it's not realistic," Chrétien also said to host Vassy Kapelos.

Trump has threatened to impose blanket 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico. While Trump initially signalled the issue at hand was the flow of illegal drugs and migrants over the border, lately the incoming president has defended the tariffs on their own merit, despite the impact they would have on the American economy.

In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has previously threatened to cut off electricity from his province to 1.5 million homes in New York, Michigan and Minnesota as a "last resort" if Trump follows through on this threat. But this past week, Ford struck a more collaborative tone, pitching an energy plan dubbed "Fortress Am-Can" that would rely and build upon Ontario's existing nuclear infrastructure to deliver more power south of the border.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Quebec Premier Francois Legault and Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey have said they are opposed to cutting off energy exports to retaliate.

Chrétien — who served as Canada's 20th prime minister from 1993 to 2003 — said trade negotiations and other bilateral issues have, and always will, occur with the country's closest neighbour and ally.

"You know, (Trump) loves to be in the news, and the news gives him a lot of space," he said. "But the reality is, in my view, I'm not losing sleep over that, because they will probably suffer much more than we will do if we have that type of war."

CTV News confirmed this week that Canadian officials are narrowing a list of American products to target in the event the federal government imposes retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump.

Namely, U.S. steel products and ceramics, including toilets and sinks, as well as Florida orange juice, according to sources.

Chrétien told Kapelos that Canada is in "a better position" because of the nature of many of its exports to the United States.

"We can get orange juice and a lot of products from other nations, but the electricity is not coming by truck or pipeline," he said. "And the type of oil they buy from Alberta, if they don't buy it from Alberta, they will have to buy it from Venezuela, because it's a special type of oil they buy mostly from us, and they cannot replace it by something else."

Chrétien doesn't take 51st state comments 'seriously'

The incoming commander-in-chief, meanwhile, has ramped up the rhetoric even further in recent weeks, doubling down on his so-called joke to annex Canada and make it the 51st U.S. state and threatening to use what he called "economic force" to make it happen.

In an interview on CNN this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Trump of using the point to distract from the conversation around tariffs and their potential impact on both countries' economies.

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Chrétien, for his part, is not worried.

"I don't take that seriously, because I don't think it will happen," Chrétien said. "It's not in the interest of America not to have a good neighbour like Canada, north."

"And for Mr. Trump, he does not realize that if Canada had been part of the U.S. a few weeks ago, he would have never become president, because the Canadians would not have voted for him," he added.

The former prime minister said: "Canadians love our values," pointing to being a "generous, tolerant society."

When asked how he believes Canadian officials are faring in navigating the threats levied by Trump, Chrétien said so far so good, citing several American television network appearances by Trudeau and Ford as examples.

Chrétien in his interview also discussed Trudeau's decision this week to resign, and weighed in on the potential contenders in the race to replace the embattled prime minister and Liberal leader.

Chrétien also said the Liberals need to move back to the "radical centre" to help their electoral fortunes.

You can watch the exclusive interview with former prime minister Jean Chretien on Question Period this Sunday at 11ET/8PT on CTV.

With files from CTV News' Stephanie Ha and Mike Le Couteur