GTA home prices still forecast to rise 11 per cent in 2022 even with expected interest rate hikes: Royal LePage
Real estate brokerage Royal LePage says that the expected rise in interest rates in 2022 “may not be enough to offset the significant upward price pressure” on homes, especially in the Greater Toronto Area where it expects the cost of the average property to go up by double-digits once again.
The brokerage said that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area increased by 17.3 per cent in 2021 to $1,119,800 as demand continued to outpace supply.
It is forecasting that in 2022 prices in the GTA will rise by another 11 per cent, with the aggregate home price reaching $1,243,000 by the fourth quarter.
The forecasted price growth comes despite market expectations that the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates up to five times in 2022, significantly increasing the cost of borrowing.
“It isn't sustainable. The good news, if you could call it that, is we see all prices rising at about half the rate they did in 2021 in the months ahead so while home prices continue to be more expensive the rate at which they're getting more expensive is falling,” Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper told CP24 on Friday morning. “We will find things return to normal appreciation levels sometime in the future, my guess is by 2023 we will be back into single-digit increases, which is what we have come to expect in the city and across the country over the decades.”
The Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate has been at its effective lower bound of 0.25 since early on in the COVID-19 pandemic but with inflation surging and employment numbers back to their pre-pandemic norms the central bank is expected to begin a cycle of rate hikes in the coming months.
Soper said that when that happens it will effectively make homes more expensive and “some people will get priced out of the market.”
But he said that it likely won’t be enough to tame rising housing prices, given the lack of supply.
“We’ve been building to this lack of supply for years unfortunately and it really came to a head during the pandemic when there was such hyper focus on our homes,” he said. “People were saving money. They were not travelling, they weren’t going out to restaurants and they redirected that money, a lot of it, into their living conditions.”
Royal LePage says that in 2021 the median price of a detached home in the Greater Toronto Area increased 22.4 per cent to $1,421,200 while the median price of a condominium increased 14.8 per cent to $665,400.
Soper, however, said that price growth in condos could outpace detached homes in 2022 due to the “growing gap” in prices, at least in the GTA.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Widow looking for answers after Quebec man dies in Texas Ironman competition
The widow of a Quebec man who died competing in an Ironman competition is looking for answers.
Amid concerns over 'collateral damage' Trudeau, Freeland defend capital gains tax change
Facing pushback from physicians and businesspeople over the coming increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his deputy Chrystia Freeland are standing by their plan to target Canada's highest earners.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
Wildfire southwest of Peace River spurs evacuation order
People living near a wildfire burning about 15 kilometres southwest of Peace River are being told to evacuate their homes.
World seeing near breakdown of international law amid wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Amnesty says
The world is seeing a near breakdown of international law amid flagrant rule-breaking in Gaza and Ukraine, multiplying armed conflicts, the rise of authoritarianism and huge rights violations in Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar, Amnesty International warned Wednesday as it published its annual report.
Train derailed in Sarnia after colliding with a truck
Police are investigating after a transport truck collided with a train in Sarnia.
Fewer medical students going into family medicine contributing to doctor shortage
As some family doctors are retiring and others are moving away from family medicine, there are fewer medical students to take their place.
'It's discriminatory': Individuals refused entry to Ontario legislature for wearing keffiyeh
Individuals being barred from entering Ontario’s legislature while wearing a keffiyeh say the garment is part of their cultural identity— and the only ones making it political are the politicians banning it.
Bodies found by U.S. authorities searching for missing B.C. kayakers
United States authorities who have been searching for a pair of missing kayakers from British Columbia since the weekend have recovered two bodies in the nearby San Juan Islands of Washington state.