Flu and RSV activity in Ontario expected to increase, COVID-19 to decrease: report

This electron microscope image provided by the National Institutes of Health shows human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) virions, colorized blue, and anti-RSV F protein/gold antibodies, colorized yellow, shedding from the surface of human lung cells. I(National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH via AP, File)

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity in Ontario is expected to increase over the next several days as COVID-19 transmission decreases, a new report shows.

Public Health Ontario made the short-term projections in a report published on Nov. 1.

The Integrated Respiratory Virus Risk Indicators report, which makes projections on viral activity in the province based on the number of tests that come back positive, shows that flu activity is expected to inch slightly higher leading up to Nov. 9, which is far as the projections go. The most recently available test data, according to PHO’s Ontario Respiratory Virus Tool, (which provides a snapshot of viral activity in the province) shows that the positivity rate for the flu in Ontario was 0.6 per cent during the week of Oct. 20, which PHO considers low.

New data shows influenza activity in Ontario is expected to rise slightly in the short term. (Public Health Ontario)

Meanwhile, the positivity rate for RSV was relatively higher at 1.4 per cent during the same period, but is expected to grow by a steeper curve than influenza activity leading into the second week of November, the report shows.

RSV activity in Ontario is expected to rise before Nov 9. (Public Health Ontario)

In contrast, COVID-19 activity in Ontario appears to be falling during the projection period mapped out by PHO. Per cent positivity is still listed as “moderate” at 15.9 per cent, but is expected to decrease in the short term.

Data released by Public Health Ontario shows COVID-19 activity in the province is expected to decrease in the days ahead. (PHO)

The report also looks at the risk of severe illness (i.e. hospitalizations) to both pediatric and adult populations as a result of the viral activity. While the risk to both groups remains at a “medium” level, it’s expected to increase for pediatric patients before Nov. 9 while remaining “stable” for adults.

Health officials in Ontario have stated that the risk of a severe outcome following an RSV infection is highest among people over the age of 60, infants under six months of age and children under 24 months of age.

Earlier this month, the provincial government expanded its RSV immunization program to include all babies born in 2024. Previously, only high-risk infants were eligible. Vaccinations are also available for individuals over the age of 60 living in a long-term care home and pregnant women.

Flu shots and COVID-19 vaccines are available to Ontarians for free and can be accessed at most local pharmacies, public health units and primary care providers in the province.